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The March WASDE had few major surprises, but Kansas City and Chicago wheat fell to limit-down as liquidation continued. Corn, soybeans and soybean oil also fell, while soybean meal was the exception.
Lower South American output and declining Black Sea exports were cited as key factors.
Wheat's limit-down move reflects heavy fund liquidation and a mildly bearish balance sheet. Reduced Black Sea and South American supply limits the downside over time for wheat and oilseed prices.
dtnpf.comDana MantiniMar 10, 2022After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On March 10 soybean meal was the exception, rising while other grains fell after the WASDE, on lower South American output and falling Black Sea exports.
