USDA's September report lowered Canadian and Australian wheat estimates, but larger Russian and Indian crops raised world wheat stocks by 2.33 million tonnes to 261.29 million. The US corn yield increase added about 7.95 million tonnes to global corn output.
Markets fell, and US soybean output was also raised.
Higher world wheat and corn supplies outweigh supply cuts in exporters, keeping prices under pressure until trade tensions produce a bullish surprise.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.