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USDA's August report cut the US wheat crop to 1.697 billion bushels, the lowest estimate since 2002, and reduced ending stocks to 627 million bushels, below expectations. Hard red winter wheat production was also below expectations, and world wheat production was cut sharply.
Corn was viewed as friendly, while soybeans were slightly negative.
Lower US and world wheat supplies tighten global stocks and support prices, particularly for hard red winter wheat used in feed rations. The friendlier corn numbers add modest support, while the bearish soybean outlook caps those gains.
agweek.comRandy MartinsonAug 20, 2021After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
