July Kansas City wheat futures fell about 18 cents on the day of the June WASDE after the ninth drop in 11 sessions, and ended down 17.75 cents. USDA raised U.S. winter wheat production on solid yields and test weights in early Texas and Oklahoma harvests.
Corn and soybean markets were little moved by the report.
Larger U.S. hard red winter wheat output is bearish for Kansas City wheat, and it was already priced in through the recent losses. Corn and soybeans saw no change in supply signals.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.