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USDA's June crop production report raised US winter wheat output 1.3% from May, with HRW up 21 million bushels to 726 million, while SRW was forecast at 343 million bushels. The WASDE cut global wheat output on production issues in Europe and the Black Sea.
Markets viewed the US report as bearish, especially for Kansas City futures.
Larger US HRW supply weighs on Kansas City wheat, while lower EU and Black Sea output provides longer-term support for global feed wheat prices.
producer.comBruce BurnettJun 18, 2024After 138 past bearish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
