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Wheat prices had been rising before the January 12 USDA report, which showed winter wheat seedings barely changed from last year, far above the analyst expectation of a 9.6% decline. HRW seedings fell only 1% versus an expected 10%, and SRW fell 4.1% versus an expected 9%.
Drought is forecast to persist in the Plains.
Larger-than-expected seedings add supply expectations and weigh on wheat futures, though persistent Plains drought could limit the bearish effect.
farmprogress.comKim AndersonJan 18, 2018After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
