US and EU wheat prices fell this week, with US markets moving back toward recent contract lows. ABARES forecast Australian wheat output down 42% to 20.3 million tonnes, and Statistics Canada put Canadian wheat output near 30 million tonnes, above trade expectations.
A larger-than-expected Canadian crop and continued EU sales from Black Sea exporters outweigh the Australian shortfall, keeping wheat prices under pressure.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Weekly reports showed US wheat sliding toward contract lows with Canadian output above expectations, which reinforced bearish sentiment into the 12-11 session.