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Argus forecasts French wheat production in 2025 at 33.4mn t, a sharp recovery from the 2024 crop of about 25.6mn t. The projection assumes a yield of 7.44 t/ha on 4.49mn ha, with good early quality reported.
A much larger French crop would increase export availability and weigh on wheat prices, although the forecast is still slightly below the 2017-23 Olympic average.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.