
The International Grains Council put 2025-26 global wheat production at a record 811 million tonnes and consumption at 816 million tonnes. Its wheat sub-index fell 1% since mid-July to near a one-year low, with softer North American and Australian values.
Record global output and consumption with a near one-year low in prices suggest ample wheat supply, keeping feed wheat competitively priced against corn and other feed grains.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.