
Argus Media estimates the top eight wheat exporters will harvest a record 421 million tonnes in 2025-26, with total supply of 484 million tonnes. Carryout for those exporters is forecast at 75 million tonnes, the highest since 2017-18, while imports from North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia are expected to rise to 57 million tonnes.
A record exporter carryout indicates a bloated supply that will likely keep world wheat prices falling despite higher importer demand, which favors cheap wheat for feed use.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.