
Oklahoma State economist Kim Anderson says the US wheat stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 53 percent for 2016/17, the highest since 1986/87. Harvest-delivered bids in Oklahoma and Texas are $3.47 to $3.74 with wide negative basis.
Record stocks leave the wheat complex with heavy supply, which keeps wheat cheap as a feed substitute for corn and limits any price recovery.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.