The higher forecast production in the new season lowers the price of wheat old crop

After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Aug 13, 2024Despite lower production and inventory forecasts in the USDA report, wheat exchange prices fell-6.7%
• Dec 12, 2022Wheat prices fall despite a downgrade in the USDA’s global production forecast+10.5%
• Feb 2, 2017Wheat producers facing below cost of production prices+3.4%
• Sep 13, 2017France raises again its forecast for soft wheat production+0.7%
• Dec 19, 2023Increasing forecasts of wheat harvest and exports from Canada lowers quotations in the US+0.4%

After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Aug 13, 2024Despite lower production and inventory forecasts in the USDA report, wheat exchange prices fell-1.4%
• Feb 2, 2017Wheat producers facing below cost of production prices+0.3%
• Dec 19, 2023Increasing forecasts of wheat harvest and exports from Canada lowers quotations in the US+2.4%
• May 31, 2023Wheat prices fell by 2.5-4.7% against the background of the acceleration of sowing in the USA and an increase in crop forecasts in the EU and the Russia+4.7%
• May 14, 2025USDA forecasts lower wheat, corn, sorghum prices for 2025/26+6.8%