
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada raised its 2023/24 wheat production forecast by 2.2 million tonnes to 32 million tonnes and its export forecast by 1.9 million tonnes to 23.2 million. US wheat exports through December 12 were 28% below last year, and March futures fell across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis.
Larger Canadian supplies add to a global wheat surplus while importer demand stays low, pressuring US wheat prices. Feed buyers can expect softer wheat values in the near term.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.