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December US wheat futures fell 3.3% to 7.4% on Friday after USDA raised its 2023 US wheat production forecast to 49.32 million tons from 47.19 million, above analyst estimates. Wheat stocks were slightly above expectations.
Ukrainian Black Sea port exports also rose, adding pressure.
The USDA production surprise and rising Black Sea shipments lower world wheat prices and reduce U.S. export competitiveness. Buyers can expect cheaper wheat, especially for HRW and SRW classes.
ukragroconsult.comOct 2, 2023After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
It reports the USDA raising its production forecast above estimates and Ukrainian port exports rising, which are bearish supply factors that weighed on prices, though the main drop was Friday.
