
USDA Outlook Board chairman Mark Jekanowski says U.S. wheat acreage continues to decline and the crop will be about 4% smaller than last year. USDA cut its all-wheat price forecast to 4.50 a bushel, eight cents below the past marketing year, citing ample global supplies.
Smaller US acreage is supportive, but ample Black Sea and global supplies dominate pricing, so the lower USDA price outlook signals continued weakness for wheat.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.