
Wheat futures fell 2.2 to 4.8% on June 29 after Statistics Canada reported that Canadian wheat area will rise 6.4% to 27.02 million acres, the highest in 20 years. Kansas City HRW fell 4.8% to $294.2/t and Chicago SRW fell 4.7%.
MARS projects Kazakhstan wheat output down 13% in 2023/24.
A larger Canadian crop adds to global wheat supply and weighs on prices, while Kazakh declines are a modest offset. Lower wheat values may make wheat more competitive in feed rations.
After 138 past bearish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.