
USDA's December balance sheet lowered 2022/23 world wheat production by 2.1 million tons to 780.6 million tons, mainly on Argentina and Canada, while Australia's crop was raised to a record. Global consumption was cut by 1.6 million tons and exports were raised by 2.2 million tons, yet wheat prices still fell amid broader commodity pessimism.
Ample Australian and Black Sea supplies offset the downgrade in world output, keeping wheat prices under pressure despite tighter production numbers.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.