
USDA's January reports showed few unexpected changes to the world wheat balance sheet, with upward revisions for Argentina and the EU. NASS reported US winter wheat seedings up 2% from 2021 to the highest since 2016/17, with HRW plantings at 23.8 million acres.
Larger US winter wheat plantings point to higher future US supply, which is mildly bearish for wheat prices despite tight global stocks.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.