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Wheat rallied 20 US cents after the USDA report but then fell 33 cents over the next two sessions, closing the week just under US$5.00/bu from a May high of US$5.54. The report showed higher US opening stocks and winter wheat production, partly offset by higher new-season exports.
Seasonal harvest pressure, a stronger US dollar and US wheat's reduced competitiveness also weighed on prices.
Harvest pressure, a firmer dollar and weaker export competitiveness pushed wheat lower despite a modest USDA-driven rally. Feed buyers should expect wheat to trade with harvest seasonality and currency moves rather than a sustained supply shock.
theland.com.auMalcolm Bartholomaeus, Bartholomaeus ConsultingJun 18, 2018After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
