
Wheat futures fell nearly 1% in US trade to around $5.105, near early May lows, as the dollar index was mostly flat. US producer prices rose 0.1% in April, below forecasts, and USDA reported winter wheat 34% good to excellent in the week ending May 6.
Poor winter wheat condition relative to last year is mildly supportive, but ahead of the USDA report, the market is weighed by the lack of demand and firm US supply prospects.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.