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USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings showed 2023/24 US wheat area at 49.9 million acres, up 9% and the highest since 2016, with winter wheat up 13%. Spring wheat fell 2% to its lowest since 2017, and grain stocks data was also released.
Higher area is bearish on its face, but the market's rise in HRW futures shows outside bullish factors dominate. Lower spring wheat area could tighten supply later in the year.
uswheat.orgApr 12, 2023After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
