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USDA's May WASDE projects 2026/27 world wheat production at 819.1 million tonnes, down 24.7 million from 2025/26. The US harvest is forecast at 42.5 million tonnes, with hard red winter at 14.0 million tonnes, the smallest since 1957.
Lower EU and Australian crops also contribute to the decline.
A sharp drop in major exporter supplies, led by US hard red winter wheat, tightens the global wheat balance and supports prices. Lower ending stocks raise the price outlook for feed-grade wheat substitutes.
grainbrokers.com.auGBAMay 20, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
