
AAFC's December supply and demand tables were revised to reflect Statistics Canada's latest production estimates, cutting total principal field crop production by 1.477 million tonnes. Ending stocks of principal crops were revised 270,000 tonnes lower to 12 million tonnes, still up 24% year on year, and wheat exports were raised to 18.9 million tonnes.
Lower Canadian production and stocks, combined with higher wheat exports, tighten the export balance and modestly support wheat prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.