AHDB's 2024/25 early balance sheets show UK wheat availability down 9% to 16.638 Mt, mainly from a 21% drop in production. Barley consumption is forecast to climb significantly, outweighing higher availability.
Paris and UK futures were under pressure on 23 October.
A tighter UK wheat balance and stronger barley demand support feed grain prices and make barley-for-feed substitution more attractive only if the spread stays wide.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.