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The AHDB's first 2025/26 UK cereal supply and demand estimates project wheat and maize imports of 2.20 million tonnes, down 28% year on year. Bioethanol demand has fallen after the Vivergo shutdown and Ensus remains offline, while brewing, malting and distilling demand is also expected to decline.
Lower supply is expected to outweigh weaker demand and tighten the balance sheet.
Reduced imports and a tighter UK balance sheet support domestic wheat and barley prices, while weaker bioethanol and malting demand limits the rally.
aafarmer.co.ukRichard LawrenceDec 1, 2025After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
