USDA's December 9 WASDE raised U.S. corn stocks for 2022-23 by 75 million bushels to 1.257 billion. Compared with Reuters poll expectations, corn stocks were 20 million bushels higher, soybean stocks 18 million lower and wheat stocks 5 million lower.
Global corn, soybean and wheat stocks were also reported against expectations.
The corn stock surprise was modestly bearish, while the lower soybean and wheat stock figures than expected are supportive for those markets.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.