USDA's August 12 WASDE data is compared with Reuters poll expectations, showing corn yield 0.5 bushel below trade expectations and soybean yield 0.8 bushel above. US 2022/23 ending stocks were corn 1.388 billion bushels, soybeans 245 million and all wheat 610 million.
Corn ending stocks and yield came in below expectations, supporting corn, while soybean production above forecast and wheat stocks 40 million bushels under trade expectations shape the soy and wheat outlook.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.