USDA's July WASDE forecast 2023 US corn yield at 177.5 bu/acre and production at 15.32 billion bushels, both above market expectations. Soybean production fell 210 million bushels to 4.3 billion, but 2023/24 ending stocks were 105 million bushels above expectations.
All-wheat stocks were also above trade estimates.
Corn and soybean supplies exceed market forecasts, which reduces the price premium for feed grains and meal and points to lower prices.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.