USDA's April 11 WASDE left 2022-23 U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks unchanged at 1,342 and 210 million bushels. U.S. wheat stocks rose 30 million bushels to 598 million, above the market's expectation.
Higher-than-expected wheat carryout is bearish for wheat prices. Corn and soybean balance sheets were close to trade expectations, so they offer little direction.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.