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USDA cut 2021 US wheat production by another 51 million bushels, to 1.65 billion, with hard red winter and white wheat accounting for most of the reduction. The agency also added 1.4 million bushels to June 1 wheat stocks, which implies slightly larger old-crop ending stocks.
Smaller US supplies and a tighter stocks-to-use ratio support wheat prices, and the revisions reinforce the rally seen after the report. The old-crop stock addition does little to offset tightening new-crop supplies.
farmprogress.comJacqueline HollandOct 1, 2021After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA's further 51 million bushel cut to 2021 US wheat production (mainly HRW and white wheat) reduced supply and supported SRW prices through spillover across wheat classes.
