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USDA's weekly crop condition ratings begin in late May and serve as an early read on corn and soybean prospects. The article reviews four decades of ratings data and how the first-week ratings have historically related to final yields.
Early condition ratings shift market expectations for yield, and the historical link to final output helps buyers gauge how much weight to give each weekly report.
farmprogress.comBryce KnorrMay 27, 2025After 770 past neutral report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
