
Pro Farmer reported that USDA cut old- and new-crop corn ending stocks, but corn did not rally as traders focused on favorable weather. Early trade showed corn 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans 4 to 6 cents lower and wheat 6 to 11 cents lower, with all-wheat production at 1.929 billion bushels above trade expectations.
Favorable weather is overriding the tighter corn stocks, leaving corn with limited upside while larger-than-expected wheat output pressures wheat prices.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.