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Pro Farmer's reaction to the August report notes a record soybean crop estimate of 4.531 billion bushels, above the trade's 4.481 billion, which pushed new-crop ending stocks higher than expected. Corn production came in at 14.359 billion bushels, below the trade's 14.392 billion, and cotton fell well short of expectations.
A soybean supply surprise is bearish for soybeans and meal, while the smaller corn crop is supportive for feed grain prices.
profarmer.comBrian GreteAug 12, 2022After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record soybean crop estimate above trade expectations lifted new-crop stocks, bearish for meal.
The record soybean crop estimate lifted new-crop ending stocks above expectations, adding bearish supply pressure.
