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USDA's May WASDE and production reports put old- and new-crop US corn and soybean ending stocks well below pre-report trade expectations. Winter wheat production came in above analyst estimates, with HRW at 784 million bushels versus 748 expected.
Tighter-than-expected corn and soybean carryouts support feed grain and soymeal prices, while the larger wheat crop is bearish for wheat and its feed substitution value.
profarmer.comHillari MasonMay 12, 2025After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
