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USDA's January 12 reports raised projected 2025-26 US wheat ending stocks to 926 million bushels, above the average analyst expectation of 896 million. USDA also revised up Argentina and Russia wheat crop estimates and reported Dec.
1 stocks up 7% from a year earlier.
Larger-than-expected US and global wheat carryover is bearish, adding supply that competes with feed grains and caps export-driven price gains.
world-grain.comMatt NoltemeyerJan 15, 2026After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
