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USDA's September WASDE cut US 2025/26 wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels while leaving production unchanged at 1.927 billion bushels. Chicago SRW December futures fell 4 cents to $5.18 per bushel, and Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 3 cents.
Russian export offers also softened amid higher export tariffs.
Tighter US ending stocks would normally support prices, but the price drop shows that global supply and Black Sea export pressure outweighed the cut for wheat feed buyers.
fastmarkets.comthe Fastmarkets teamSep 18, 2025After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
