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The October USDA report raised global wheat ending stock estimates by 1.3 million tonnes, with 800,000 tonnes of that from the US. Australian production was cut 1 million tonnes to 18 million, and world wheat trade and consumption were lowered.
Higher global stocks and US prices remaining high versus Black Sea and EU wheat limit export growth, which is bearish for wheat prices. Lower feed use in the US also reduces demand for wheat in feed rations.
farmonline.com.auMalcolm BartholomaeusOct 14, 2019After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
