The USDA's September report raised wheat supply estimates, with opening stocks increased for Canada, the EU and India. Production was raised for Australia, India and China, and global ending stocks rose.
Global supplies were up 7.1 million tonnes from the August figures, though consumption also rose 2.96 million tonnes.
A larger global wheat supply and higher ending stocks put downward pressure on wheat prices. The consumption increase partly offsets the bearish effect.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.