USDA lifts 2025-26 global wheat stocks forecast as higher output offsets record demand

After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2019Australia’s 2019-20 wheat output forecast higher | 2019-03-04 | World Grain-3.6%
• Oct 14, 2019USDA lifts global wheat stock estimates | Farm Online | ACT+3.4%
• May 14, 2025USDA forecasts lower wheat, corn, sorghum prices for 2025/26+6.8%
• Feb 7, 2025SovEcon raises 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast amid higher beginning stocks | Miller Magazine-1.5%
• Sep 18, 2025US wheat futures slip after USDA boosts global ending stocks-1.8%

After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2019Australia’s 2019-20 wheat output forecast higher | 2019-03-04 | World Grain+0.7%
• Oct 14, 2019USDA lifts global wheat stock estimates | Farm Online | ACT+4.5%
• Dec 6, 2022Australia's MY 2022-23 wheat output forecast at record 36.6 mil mt+9.9%
• May 14, 2025USDA forecasts lower wheat, corn, sorghum prices for 2025/26-3.8%
• Feb 27, 2025USDA Forecasts Record Corn Crop, Larger Soybean Crop for 2025-26-4.3%