S&P Global reported that ABARES raised its 2022-23 Australian wheat forecast to a record 36.6 million tonnes from 32.2 million. Western Australia output was lifted to 13 million tonnes, while New South Wales was cut to 9.1 million tonnes.
Australian Prime Hard and standard white wheat prices fell about 7% and 10% respectively over the month.
Higher Australian supply and lower Australian wheat export prices point to softer global wheat values, while quality concerns in New South Wales could tighten premium milling supply.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.