ABARES forecasts Australian wheat production to rise 38% to 23.9 million tonnes in 2019-20, assuming average rainfall. This follows a 17.3 million tonne crop in 2018-19, the smallest in a decade after drought in New South Wales and Queensland.
A rebound in Australian output would add exportable supply after a drought-hit year, which is bearish for world wheat prices, though the forecast depends on rain arriving before planting.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.