ABARES forecasts total Australian winter crop output to rise 32% to a record 52.4 million tonnes in 2016-17. Wheat is forecast at a record 32.6 million tonnes, up 35%, with higher output in every state.
Favourable spring conditions boosted yield potential, though flooding and frost hurt some areas.
A record Australian wheat and barley crop expands export supply during a period of already ample world grain stocks. This is bearish for feed grain prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.