
Pro Farmer's January 12 report reaction described most USDA data as bearish versus expectations. Corn production was set at a record 15.342 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.165 billion bushels, both above trade estimates, while corn futures fell 11 to 15 cents and soybeans nearly 30 cents.
Production numbers above trade expectations confirm a heavier supply outlook, pressuring corn, soybean and meal values for feed buyers.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.