
Pro Farmer's reaction to the December USDA reports noted corn futures slipped 2 to 3 cents, soybeans fell 6 to 8 cents and wheat dropped 15 to 20-plus cents after the release. USDA raised its cotton crop estimate by 86,000 bales, while corn, soybean and wheat carryout figures were unchanged except for wheat, which rose to 598 million bushels.
Unchanged corn and soybean carryouts give feed buyers little reason to expect a price move, while the higher wheat carryout reinforces softer wheat values.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.