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A RePEc research paper examines how markets reacted to USDA's August corn crop reports, noting that wet spring weather delayed planting across the Corn Belt. It describes trade expectations that planting delays would cut acreage and yields, and that USDA re-surveyed fourteen major states after unusually many unplanted acres.
Market reaction to USDA reports shows how sensitive corn prices are to acreage and yield surprises. The paper is academic analysis and does not add new supply information.
doi.orgMichael K. Adjemian, Shawn Arita, Vince Breneman, Ashley Hungerford, Rob JohanssonJan 1, 2019After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
