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USDA's November report lowered the soybean crop by 23 million bushels, while traders expected a 36-million-bushel increase. USDA raised the corn crop by 43 million bushels to 15.062 billion, with yield at a record 177.0 bushels per acre.
Soybean futures rallied more than 25 cents after the report.
A smaller-than-expected soybean crop tightens US supply for crushers and meal buyers, supporting soybean and soybean meal prices, while record corn output limits corn gains.
profarmer.comBrian GreteNov 10, 2021After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reaction piece describes the crop estimate cut versus an expected rise of 36 million bushels and a soybean rally of more than 25 cents, confirming the surprise supply shock, though it is dated a day later.
