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USDA's September 30 Small Grains Summary put 2017/18 US wheat production at 47.4 million tonnes (1.74 billion bushels), down 25% year over year, on the smallest harvested area since 1890. Beginning stocks are the largest since 1988/89 and partly offset the lower output.
Production is sharply lower, but record-level carry-in stocks cushion supply and limit the price impact. Wheat remains a feed alternative to corn, so its tight-but-stocked balance matters for feed costs.
uswheat.orgU.S. Wheat AssociatesNov 1, 2017After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
