USDA reported net wheat sales of 502,700 metric tons for 2019/2020, up sharply from the prior week and 33% above the 4-week average, led by Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. Export sales pace remains behind last year's and the five-year average as a share of demand forecasts.
The CPC also issued its latest ENSO report.
Strong buying from Asian importers supports US wheat demand, but HRW remains uncompetitive after a 12-cent futures rally versus Russian and Argentine supplies. Price support is firm while the export pace lags.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.