
The European Commission projects EU soft wheat production for 2024/25 at 120.8 million tonnes, down nearly 4% and the lowest since 2020/21, on a smaller planted area of 20.95 million hectares. Exports are forecast steady at 31.0 million tonnes, while imports and end-of-season stocks fall.
A four-year low EU crop with lower imports and stocks tightens European supply and supports wheat prices and feed grain demand, especially if Ukrainian imports decline.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.