Global cereal stocks falling in 2022/23; early prospects point to a decline in wheat production in 2023

After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jul 14, 2020Global wheat production on the decline - Grain Central+0.4%
• Mar 29, 2024EU sees soft wheat production falling to four-year low in 2024/25-1.3%
• Jun 29, 2017World Wheat Production to Decline in 2017/18 - U.S. Wheat Associates+2.3%
• Apr 19, 2018Competing for Acres: 2018/19 Global Wheat Production to Fall - U.S. Wheat Associates+0.3%
• Feb 22, 2018Early Estimates Expect 2018/19 Wheat Production to Fall in the Black Sea - U.S. Wheat Associates+1.3%

After 50 past neutral report events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -1.2% over 20.

• Jul 30, 2024India’s grain production remains strong | World Grain+0.4%
• Dec 13, 2016International Maize, Wheat, Rice Prices Remain Down, According to Latest FPMA Report | Food Security Portal-3.9%
• Oct 22, 2023Mint Primer: Making sense of India’s record food production | Mint+2.4%
• Dec 19, 2024Record-breaking achievements in agricultural product consumption-6.1%
• Jul 13, 2017Vietnam, Pakistan, and Burma expected to drive global rice exports upward in 2018 | Economic Research Service+2.5%